New impetus to China's economic growth depends on new financial

In recent years, China's economy is facing downward pressure, falling economic growth sparked anxiety. Economic growth need to find a new impetus, the government's attention and encouragement, rise "new finance" high hopes.
Recently, the "2015 global financial and business incubator New Forum", chief economist and director of economic forecasting State Information Center, said Fan Jianping, China's future economic growth, new impetus to look new financial data from the first half of this year to Look, the rise of new financial strength outstanding contributions. A quarter of the financial value added contribution to GDP growth increment has been close to 30%. He believes that the future fewer and fewer cheap peasant labor union, is the largest financial technology and new productivity.
China's population quality dividend to be developed
From our country's economic performance in recent years, the economy has been slowing down, in fact, no country in the whole process of modernization, it can not always maintain rapid growth, in general there is a phasing, the entire modernization process can be divided into upper half and second half.
In 2010, when we GDP more than $ 5,000, the international law began to change two factors, China's economy is now the world's second largest economy, our economic growth rate in 2014 despite 7.3% 24 years the lowest rate, but in 2014 China's GDP up 63.6 trillion yuan, or $ or even more than 10 trillion US dollars, 7.3% in 2014 such a big total, the incremental part of a $ 866.5 billion, which is $ 866.5 billion if considered a separate country in 2014 can be the world's No. 17. For China, the future will be more and more of our total. With the increase of the total, and then further on by one percentage point of difficulty is much greater than in the past. So after the total increase, economic growth gradually decelerate, which is a natural phenomenon. This is the first reason for China's economic slowdown.
The second reason is our labor, land and capital, the cost of these three elements began to rise significantly.
For we labor costs rise, there are a lot of people feel very confused, that is for the future of the old wages up how to do so. In fact, do not be so anxious, because there are two favorable factors, China is a developing country, although now, but China now has two indicators have been the first to enter the advanced level of developed countries. One is our average life expectancy, is now advanced level in developed countries, more than 70 years old. Another is China's years of education, we have a good universal nine-year compulsory education, 86% of high school to college students labor supply and demand ratio has reached 36%, China 20 years old to 24 year olds, people can go to college current ratio over France, over Switzerland, more than Norway, our index is among the best in the developed world. So for China in terms of the number of future dividends of our population slowly diminished, the number of migrant workers will be less and less cheap, but the quality of China's population dividend status has yet to be developed.
Old power China's economic growth is in the conversion period
China has a Huawei Group, they are now hiring more than 10,000 a year, but mainly university students learn computer science communications industry, these students enter after Huawei was trained for five years, if not eliminated, the high level of technology, Huawei can He said that the Chinese enterprises in this industry the highest wages, but wages of engineers and Europe pay the same level of technology engineers only people compared to one-sixth, so for China is concerned, we are the future of cheap migrant workers is less and less But China has a labor cost advantage is also an engineer, which requires us also industrial upgrading, especially now that these young people learning through higher education, they can not enter the high-end enterprise has been formed to work, since they can be through entrepreneurship In support of the government, especially in the huge Chinese market of nearly 1.4 billion population, can provide more job opportunities for them in the future market of innovative activities, they have such a large market, a new product to sell abroad of 100 Wan very, very difficult, 1.4 billion market in China, as long as products have spending power, will soon be able to reach a certain size, which is the success of his business provides a good market.
So if China will be able to integrate human resources and intellectual protection can be fully utilized, though fast rising wages, but it is built on the basis of labor productivity, based on technological advances, this is sustainable.
China is currently among the traditional industries being adjusted, but the critical period to cultivate new industries are among the old and the new engine of economic growth currently being converted, a little lean, so the economic slowdown should be said that in recent years more obvious. From 10.6 percent in 2010 to now it has been gradually reduced to 6.9 percent, the future of our economy has no hope? Soon be able to gradually have a new balance. It should be said, we have recently seen the hope, especially yesterday's "double down" and reduce interest rates, reserve ratio down at the end, the state fiscal policy this year is very positive. Countries through expansion and structural easing of the total, are helping traditional businesses get to the bottom of the policy environment.
Because of our current economic slowdown, we have to admit that the real estate and related industries are the largest downward pressure on the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy is concerned, I think the economy bottomed out to see the real estate, while the economic recovery depends on the new economy.
From a point of view of structural adjustment, and now may make a lot of people do not understand, if you go to see the steel companies in Tangshan, you will feel very pessimistic. But you went to the robot, unmanned aerial vehicles, went to see a lot of companies engage in information technology, you will feel our country thriving, especially to dream of a small town, you will feel so young and not because they are "rich II "and bear the burden, but transformed into" a second generation ", the wealth accumulated in the past into the next wave of innovation among the go, this is the whole process of transition from the old China a new phenomenon.
Finance New Trend
Financing from banks to capital market financing
Since our last large proportion of traditional industries, new economic weight is too small, there is good growth despite this new economy, but it is difficult to cover the decline of the economy. Now the traditional economy will soon bottom out, but this new economy, in addition to science and technology by the law itself, the law of the productivity impact, we are also the country's financial restructuring for the new economy, foster new impetus to China's economic growth is helping.
China's biggest feature traditional bank loan finance-based, bank loans and mortgages are based, in large industrial age, enterprises have assets can be mortgaged to the bank, so that when easing the future, funds flow to the real economy there is no problem. But now the traditional industries of manufacturing industry which has a surplus, and there are asset-backed and asset-heavy industrial enterprises do not need money. There did not want money? Have! Our cultural and creative industry enterprises, many of our Internet business is very need money, but the biggest feature of these businesses are asset-light, their biggest asset is the talent, if talent ran a business on the remaining several computers, several servers, these worthless thing mortgaged to the bank. Bank mortgage loan if you still insist on the main, that the funds will be the so-called configuration problems. This time, the transformation of economic development throughout China by the factor-driven to innovation-driven transformation, must have a complete financial restructuring, which is mainly from the original bank financing indirect financing mode to direct capital market-oriented financing model.
Development of capital markets is a multi-level, a lot of people say that capital market development, that is, to the secondary market when the retail, the results of the crash after a lesson to many of us, frankly speaking, the Chinese stock market, the stock market is already is in the system design and developed very binding, Chinese retail market is now really is not, do not and then to the secondary market to retail investors when, because after the stock market crash, many people lost money, but also lessons learned, but lessons learned from a lot of people right way.
I listen to the most is two things: a saying that as long as the cost to get it back, this life no longer stocks, there is a word to say almost before fleeing out, these are not correct. I always ask them: Do you buy the stock later, you are concerned about what kind of information as your judgment? Are you not, see you this a few ups and downs of the stock, take a look at the Shanghai Composite Index, GEM index? He said that in addition to this also looking at? I say you Kan Bukan stock index futures? They say what the stock index futures? Stock index futures where to look? I said why you will lose money, lose to lose in asymmetric information, people can not only spot the signals, there are futures signal, only half of the signal you, that you finally lose money is inevitable, it must be lost in information asymmetry on . And even if you watched stock index futures but also how what? Can you do it? 500,000 minimum account thresholds, futures and do not spare time like now, on classes, on a toilet to buy a stock or sell a stock. Futures do is dedicated, is no time on the toilet, so you simply can not do. You equivalent of only a gun, people have two guns, how people you played before? This time was honestly put your money to professional bodies to take care of. Therefore, China has to go through a professional organization, professional financial management era.
           So professional organizations to invest future capital market, it should be said that the multi-level, especially when we most need to re-hatch innovative enterprises, including angel financing, the next round A, B round, C round, this process is the professional team, they have a unique vision, they will choose an object worthy of investment, although in the process also has a high failure rate, but I believe that through the support of a professional team. With these new financial ways, China will be able to breed the next batch of Alibaba, China's future platform, the future of Samsung, Tencent future, these young people who want in.
:( Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center) has long been engaged in the NDRC Macroeconomic policy research system, involved in many important national issues and in recent times the forum "Five-Year Plan", macroeconomic policy, China studies long-term development strategy and other aspects have a significant impact in theory and government policy-making departments, won the National Development and Reform Commission of Science and Technology Progress Award.

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